Global communications provider revenues will reach $5.6 trillion with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2%, according to Omdia.
The study, which tracks both revenues and capital expenditures (capex), points to innovation, infrastructure expansion, and strategic investments in 6G and artificial intelligence (AI) as drivers of the growth.
The firm says that by 2030 telecom capex will reach $395 billion and have a 3.6% CAGR. That will be topped by technology capex of $545 billion, which is a CAGR of 9.3%.
There will be a split between traditional telecom revenue (2.7% CAGR) and hyperscale platforms (9.4% CAGR). The momentum in investment will shift toward mobile networks beginning in 2028. It will be pushed by Tier 1 investments in 6G deployments and will decline as the sector approaches saturations.
The firm also predicts that the proliferation of AI infrastructure, cloud services, and digital sovereignty policies will drive data center expansions and investment in specialized hardware.
“Telecom operators are entering a new phase of strategic investment,” said Omdia Research Director Dario Talmesio in a press release. “With 6G on the horizon and AI infrastructure demands accelerating, the connectivity business is shifting from volume-based pricing to value-driven connectivity.”
- CP capex per person will increase from $74 in 2024 to $116 in 2030, with CP capex reaching 2.5% of global GDP investment.
- Capital intensity in telecom will decline until 2027, then rise due to mobile network upgrades.
- Regional leaders in revenue and capex include North America, Oceania and Eastern Asia, and Western Europe, with Central and Southern Asia showing the highest growth potential.
A graphic in the press release shows overall revenue results from 2021 to 2030. It finds growth peaking next year and that technology revenue grows in each year of the study period. Telecom revenue mostly grows, though it dipped slightly in the 2021 to 2023 timeframe.
The firm’s forecast is based on a comprehensive model incorporating historical data from 67 countries, local market dynamics, regulatory trends, and technology migration patterns.